As the economy improves at a gradual-but-steady pace, retailers can expect moderate gains this holiday season, Deloitte forecasts.
"Rising home prices with steady job creation may buoy consumers' confidence in the economy and create a wealth effect," says Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's senior U.S. economist. "The debt ceiling and budget debate will resume this fall alongside uncertainty about the implementation of healthcare reform, which may cause some concern among consumers, but at a macro level, these factors are unlikely to have a significant effect on the economy and retail sales."
Deloitte's Retail and Distribution practice expects total holiday sales to climb to between $963 billion and $967 billion, representing a 4% to 4.5% increase in November through January holiday sales (excluding motor vehicles and gasoline) over last season. This growth rate is on par with last year's 4.5% gain.
Additionally, Deloitte forecasts a 12.5% to 13% increase in non-store sales. Nearly three-quarters of non-store sales result from the online channel, with additional sales coming from catalogs and interactive TV.
"We anticipate non-store sales growth will continue to surpass overall retail sales growth," states Alison Paul, Deloitte vice chairman, Retail & Distribution sector leader. "Additionally, shoppers researching their purchases electronically―via their PC, tablet or mobile phone―are increasingly influencing in-store sales, particularly as we see greater integration across retailers' store, online and mobile channels. More retailers are offering services such as 'buy online and pick up in store,' as well as inventory from other locations and price matching on the spot. The store is still a core element of holiday shopping, and retailers leading the way this season will be those that effectively bring together their pricing, promotions, merchandise and inventory management across both their physical and digital storefronts."
Deloitte also anticipates that mobile-influenced retail store sales will account for 8%, or $66 billion, in retail store sales this holiday season, driven by consumers' store-related smartphone activity such as product-research, price-comparison or mobile-application use.
"Retailers now realize how to engage shoppers through their mobile devices both inside and outside the store, which is having a profound impact on customer interaction, store traffic and conversion rates," adds Paul. "Consumers using their smartphones are more likely to make a purchase compared with other shoppers in the store, indicating that these activities are contributing to sales and keeping a shopper from turning to a competitor, contrary to the concern that ‘showrooming' and price checking could negatively affect sales."
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